Conversation with ChatGPT: WordPress Community

The WordPress community is currently experiencing significant internal conflict, primarily involving Automattic, the company behind WordPress.com, and WP Engine, a major WordPress hosting provider. This dispute has led to a reduction in contributions to the open-source project and raised concerns about governance and the future of WordPress.

Key Issues:

• Reduction in Contributions: Automattic has significantly decreased its contributions to the WordPress open-source project, from 3,988 hours to approximately 45 hours per week, focusing solely on security and critical updates. This decision is partly a response to the level of contributions from other companies, such as WP Engine, which contributes around 40 hours per week. The Verge
• Legal Disputes: Tensions escalated when WP Engine filed a lawsuit against Automattic and its CEO, Matt Mullenweg, alleging libel and attempted extortion. This legal action followed Mullenweg’s public criticism of WP Engine and actions that impacted WP Engine’s services. The Verge
• Governance Concerns: A group of WordPress contributors, including long-time core committers and community leaders, has issued a call for changes to the governance of the open-source project. They urge Mullenweg to collaborate with the community rather than acting unilaterally. The Repository

Comparisons to Similar Situations:

Conflicts within open-source communities are not uncommon. For instance, the Linux kernel community has faced internal disputes, leading to the adoption of a Code of Conduct to address inclusivity and maintain a collaborative environment. Wikipedia

Another example is the Koha software community, which experienced a split due to disagreements over project direction and contributions, resulting in a fork of the project. Wikipedia

Analysis:

These conflicts often stem from differing visions, contribution levels, and the balance between commercial interests and community values. Effective conflict resolution strategies in open-source communities include:

• Transparent Communication: Open dialogue helps in understanding diverse perspectives and addressing concerns before they escalate.
• Collaborative Problem-Solving: Engaging all stakeholders in decision-making fosters a sense of ownership and collective responsibility.
• Establishing Clear Governance Structures: Defined roles and processes can prevent misunderstandings and power imbalances.

The current situation within the WordPress community highlights the delicate balance required to maintain harmony in open-source projects, especially when commercial entities are involved. Learning from past experiences and implementing robust conflict resolution mechanisms are crucial steps toward ensuring the project’s sustainability and growth.

Possible Outcomes of the WordPress Community Conflict

The situation in the WordPress community can develop in multiple ways, depending on how key stakeholders—Automattic, WP Engine, independent contributors, and the broader community—respond. Here are the main possible outcomes and what each would entail:

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1. Reconciliation and Governance Reform (Ideal but Unlikely)

What Would Happen:

• Matt Mullenweg acknowledges community concerns and agrees to reforms.
• A governance structure (e.g., an advisory council, democratic elections for key roles) is put in place to decentralise leadership.
• Automattic restores some of its contribution hours and encourages other companies to do the same.
• WP Engine and Automattic settle their legal disputes amicably.
• Community trust is restored, and contributions remain strong.

Likelihood: ⭐☆☆☆☆ (Very Unlikely)

• Given past resistance to governance changes in WordPress, it’s unlikely that Mullenweg would voluntarily give up control.
• The legal conflict with WP Engine suggests deeper tensions that may not be resolved through diplomacy alone.

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2. Status Quo with Gradual Decline (Most Likely)

What Would Happen:

• Automattic continues to reduce its contributions, focusing only on security and essential maintenance.
• Other companies and individual contributors do not step up enough to fill the gap, leading to a slowdown in WordPress development.
• Dissatisfaction within the community grows, but without a strong alternative, most users stay with WordPress despite grievances.
• WordPress remains dominant in the CMS space but loses momentum, making it vulnerable to competitors.

Likelihood: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Most Likely)

• This scenario aligns with historical patterns in open-source projects where leadership conflicts lead to stagnation rather than immediate collapse.
• Many contributors will likely continue using WordPress out of necessity, but engagement may dwindle.
• Major companies that rely on WordPress (hosting providers, agencies, theme/plugin developers) will hesitate to take risks in governance disputes.

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3. Fragmentation and Forking (A Plausible but Challenging Outcome)

What Would Happen:

• A group of influential developers and companies decide to fork WordPress, creating a competing CMS based on its open-source code.
• This new fork establishes a more community-driven governance model.
• Adoption of the fork starts slowly but gains traction, especially among developers frustrated with WordPress leadership.
• However, long-term sustainability is uncertain—maintaining a large CMS project without Automattic’s resources would be difficult.

Likelihood: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ (Possible but Challenging)

• Forking has happened before in open-source (e.g., Joomla forked from Mambo, LibreOffice from OpenOffice), but it requires significant commitment from developers and financial backers.
• WordPress’s market dominance means any fork would need substantial industry support to succeed.

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4. Increased Competition from Alternatives

What Would Happen:

• As WordPress governance issues persist, competitors like Webflow, Ghost, or headless CMS solutions (e.g., Strapi, Contentful) gain market share.
• Large hosting providers and agencies start diversifying their offerings, moving away from exclusive reliance on WordPress.
• WordPress remains a significant player but gradually loses dominance, mirroring the decline of Drupal and Joomla.

Likelihood: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (Highly Likely Over Time)

• The WordPress ecosystem is vast, and businesses tend to move slowly when transitioning to new platforms.
• However, competitors are already taking advantage of WordPress’s stagnation, and this trend will likely accelerate.

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5. Full Corporate Takeover by Automattic (A Risky but Possible Scenario)

What Would Happen:

• Automattic leverages its financial power to further centralise control over WordPress.org.
• The project moves closer to a corporate-run model, reducing the influence of independent contributors.
• More features are integrated into WordPress.com, blurring the line between the open-source and commercial versions.
• This could lead to widespread community backlash, but without a viable alternative, many would reluctantly stay.

Likelihood: ⭐⭐☆☆☆ (Unlikely but Not Impossible)

• This would contradict the open-source ethos of WordPress and could trigger an exodus of developers.
• However, Automattic’s business interests in WordPress.com mean that it has a vested interest in keeping the ecosystem alive, even if it means further commercialisation.

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6. Community-Led Resistance Without Forking

What Would Happen:

• Independent contributors continue pushing for governance changes through discussions, petitions, and public statements.
• Community-driven initiatives (like Contributor Working Groups) gain momentum.
• WordPress leadership faces mounting pressure to change, but reforms happen slowly and reluctantly.

Likelihood: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ (Plausible, but Slow Progress)

• The WordPress community is passionate, and many want to fix the project from within rather than abandon it.
• However, without clear enforcement mechanisms, resistance efforts may struggle to produce concrete change.

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Most Probable Outcome:

🔥 Status Quo with Gradual Decline (#2)

• WordPress will not collapse overnight, but the slow withdrawal of contributions, governance dissatisfaction, and reduced innovation will weaken it over time.
• Automattic will prioritise commercial interests, while community contributors will continue working with growing frustration.
• Without a dramatic intervention (like a fork or governance reform), WordPress will remain dominant but stagnate, making room for competitors.

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Conclusion:

The WordPress conflict highlights the long-standing tension between corporate-backed open-source projects and community governance. While reconciliation and reform would be ideal, historical precedent suggests a slow decline rather than immediate collapse. The community’s next steps will determine whether WordPress remains the leading CMS or loses ground to emerging alternatives.